This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. This is also a prime time for bird watching. 0000152505 00000 n Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. Int J Climatol 24:973983. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. Firstly, a preliminary subdivision . For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. 2006; Saji and Yamagata 2003) show that anomalous warming (cooling) over the equatorial East Pacific and Indian Ocean are associated with enhanced (suppressed) rainfall amounts in this wider region. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. Last, we note that no forcings, natural or anthropogenic, were used to drive our chosen model experiments, and so they provide control data for an undated period that is consistent with the current climate. 0000005621 00000 n Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. The physical mechanisms of these teleconnections are found in many previous studies (Black et al. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. It also went extinct between 780,000 and 600,000 years ago. 0000088798 00000 n Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. . This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. 2014 ). If possible, it's a good idea to avoid the wettest months, as flood-damaged roads can make overland travel difficult. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? 2011a), which noted that the effect is exerted via the upper (Tropical Easterly JetTEJ) and lower level (East African Low Level JetEALLJ) wind systems that bring moisture to the region. The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. 2011; and Martin et al. The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. #featurenav a {color: #069} These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). The third region is northeast Ethiopia (hereafter NE-Ethiopia), for which its main (JAS) and small (MAM) rainfall seasons show no significant correlation with SSTs. Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! 0000007328 00000 n 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. (Rain amount is presented in mm). Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, Note that even in the warmer temperatures, shorts are not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly. Nikon D5100 Manual Video, The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. 9. The warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures for Basona Werana and Efratana Gidim, respectively, are statistically significant at p = .05 and p = .01 levels. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . 0000188900 00000 n The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:43114323. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. It can be seen in Fig. 0000009018 00000 n Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. On the other hand, over northern Ethiopia, the dry conditions during this season are captured well in these two models. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. 0000012705 00000 n 0000089621 00000 n The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Read our. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. Part of Springer Nature. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. 156 0 obj <> endobj aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! Apart from this, both models are able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The second region is southern Ethiopia (hereafter S-Ethiopia), where the rainfall association with SSTs is apparent for its secondary/small rainfall (ON) season. We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. 2009a). The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. Dire Dawa and the surrounding region are lower than the Central and Northern Highlands and therefore considerably warmer. 4. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. 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